The NRCS has published their latest forecast model for flows on the Upper Madison. As you can see, there's a 50% chance we achieve 85% of average flows above Hebgen, and a 50% chance we achieve 81% of average flows between Hebgen and Ennis Lake. This reflects what we've seen in the snotel site data with those 4 sites in the upper basin feeding Hebgen doing slightly better than the sites that drain to the Madison below Hebgen.

For the optimists out there, this forecast also predicts a 30% chance that we achieve 92% of average. Given how our winter got off to such an historically slow start, the late gains we've seen in February and March have changed our outlook from very bleak to solidly not great, but not catastrophic.

With a week and a half left before we get to average annual peak, things are unlikely to change dramatically one way or the other. Our focus now changes from hoping for more snow, to hoping it all doesn't come off at once!